Gross Profit LTV, Not Revenue
Lifetime value calculated after COGS, shipping, and fees. The number that actually matters for payback.
CUSTOMER LIFETIME ANALYSIS
How long until a customer is worth what you paid.
Cohort-based lifetime value built on gross profit, not revenue. See the exact month each group of customers moves from loss to profit, and which products get them there.
You know your CAC. You probably quote an LTV number. But is it real?
Most LTV calculations are based on revenue, averaged across all customers, measured over an arbitrary window. That number looks good in a pitch deck. It doesn't tell you when a customer actually becomes profitable, which products drive their repeat purchases, or whether last quarter's acquisition cohort is performing better or worse than the one before it.
What You See
Customer Lifetime Analysis shows a cohort table. Each row is a group of customers defined by the month they first purchased. Each column is a subsequent month. The cells show cumulative gross profit per cohort: how much value that group of customers has generated, after costs, from their first purchase through every subsequent one.
The table uses color intensity to show quintile rankings, so you can visually scan which cohorts are strong and which are lagging. You can toggle between month-to-date actuals and forecasted LTV, and extend the projection to 12 months or 5 years. The forecast is built on each cohort's actual purchase patterns, not an industry average.
Capabilities
Cohort-by-Cohort Breakdown
Each acquisition month gets its own row. Compare December customers against June customers directly.
Real Payback Period
Find the exact month where a cohort crosses from cumulative loss to cumulative profit.
12-Month and 5-Year Forecasts
Project LTV forward based on actual repeat patterns, not assumptions.
Quintile Color Coding
Darker cells mean higher value. Scan the table visually and spot your best cohorts in seconds.
MTD vs. Forecasted Toggle
Switch between what's happened so far this month and what the full month is projected to deliver.
The Insight
Find where the cumulative line crosses zero. That is your real payback period. The month where a cohort collectively moves from loss to profit, after acquisition cost and every cost tied to their orders. Most brands are surprised by how long it actually takes. And then surprised again by which products are doing most of the work to get there. If payback happens at month 4, every dollar of repeat revenue after that is pure margin.
What You Can Do With This
Reassess acquisition spend with real numbers.
If the cumulative line is still negative at month 6 or 7, CAC is outpacing repeat purchase value. That's a signal to reduce spend, improve targeting, or tighten post-purchase retention before scaling further.
Identify your retention anchors.
The products that contribute the most gross profit in repeat months are your retention anchors. Give them priority in email flows, upsell sequences, and retargeting campaigns.
Compare cohorts to find what works.
If one cohort breaks even in 3 months and another takes 7, something was different. The campaign, the season, the offer. This table tells you which cohort to investigate. The answer tells you what to repeat.
Set a concrete payback target.
Once you know your current payback period, you have a real benchmark. Not an abstract LTV-to-CAC ratio. A specific month number you can improve against.
Common Questions
Month 0 includes the acquisition cost subtracted from first-purchase revenue. Very few customers are immediately profitable after accounting for what it cost to acquire them. The chart shows this honestly.
Pick a window starting 12 to 18 months ago. That gives cohorts enough repeat-purchase history to tell a meaningful story. More recent cohorts haven't had enough time to reveal their true value.
Gross profit. That's the entire point. Revenue-based LTV overstates customer value because it ignores costs. This shows you what customers are actually worth after every dollar of cost is subtracted.
See it with your own data.
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